From the teacher:
Speculative-Evaluative Intelligence: Findings — 40% of semester grade
• Present the knowledge produced by your collection and analysis carried out as part of your intelligence section and in regard to your specific tasking.
◦ Explain how well the information meets the specific intelligence requirements you identified. Describe your level of confidence in the information you
gathered (how confident are you that the information you have accurately represents objective reality?).
• Present an argument concerning the significance of this information on the strategic challenges posed by your target nation.
◦ Explain what is happening (or, likely to happen) and why. Describe the effects of what is happening (or, will happen) on the national security of the United
States and/or the strategic situation. Identify the pivotal causal factors in the production of these effects and explain why these are in fact the pivotal
factors.
• Must identify the sources of the information and explain how the intelligence was produced.
◦ (For example: “Analysis of satellite imagery from Google Earth was used to observe changes in the port facilitates of the Russian Northern Fleet. This
imagery was also used to observe the nature and number of Russian vessels. This information was compared to media accounts and military force data
from The Military Balance produced by IISS.” )
• Product must be between 7,500 and 10,000 words — not including name, title, citations, etc.
• Must employ at least six different sources.
• Must provide citations.
• Include maps, graphs, photographs, etc. as warranted.
• Must employ Bottom-Line-Up-Front mechanism.
From Me:
• Must include footnote citations on all citable sources and graphs/images
• Use attached documents for formatting examples (Speculative Intelligence Product Example from 2020.pdf) and some source information (Speculative
Intelligence Journal)
• Must use ( https://www.scmp.com/knowledge/topics/china-economy/news) as a source
Some information to include:
This week, The Wall Street Journal released an article stating that China’s economy grew 4.8% which beat expectations. Furthermore, between the current
events in Ukraine, China’s zero-Covid policies, and the housing market bubble, China is not expected to meet its target GDP growth of 5.5%. These three
issues have put China’s economy in a very fragile position. In other words, China may not be as big of an economic threat as previously predicted. However,
the current US sanctions on Russia causing commodity prices to skyrocket may cause a drastic reaction from China in an effort to loosen the grip on their
economy.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-economy-expanded-4-8-in-first-quarter-beating-expectations-11650247529
As China’s economy continues to suffer due to supply chain shortages resulting from zero-Covid policies, I wanted to focus on China’s stance on the current
issue in Ukraine. I have found an article that provides an idea of China’s stance on the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3174292/china-vows-necessary-measures-defend-investors-amid-western
In this article, Shu Jueting, a representative from the PRC’s Ministry of Commerce, released a quote that essentially shows China’s stance on the conflict in
Ukraine. The statement follows, “We oppose any ban or restriction on China’s normal trade activities with other countries”. This statement was released in
response to strict American sanctions that have been placed on Russia to restrict their economy. The sanctions that have been placed on Russia are now
beginning to affect China’s access to resources (primarily fuel). China has previously made claims of neutrality concerning Ukraine, however, now that the
PRC is feeling the effects of these sanctions, they have essentially shown their stance on the matter. China does not want to have its way of life interfered
with by a conflict that it has no part in. With this in mind, the US should consider restrategizing the sanctions placed on Russia to deescalate and prevent
Chinese involvement.
Hey everyone, I’m the NIO for China’s domestic economy. If anyone has any information that you think would benefit my research you can contact me or in
our section’s groupchat via GroupMe. Also, if you think I may have some information that may benefit your research just let me know via the above methods
of contact.
This week, the majority of the information I have come across mainly pertains to the economic difficulties created by the recent COVID surge in China.
One source I have find to be extremely useful is the South China Morning Post (SCMP). This source provides current events in regards to China’s economy:
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3173612/chinas-car-sales-losses-april-may-top-300000-lockdowns-key
This article details the disruption of supply chains for automobile manufacturing hubs across China as a result of the recent COVID surge.
Another article I found on SCMP Is:
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