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The strategy of International Organizations in Post-Conflict Kosovo
Chapter One: Introduction
The primary focus of this research is to investigate the role and approaches of international organizations in the post-conflict reconstruction of Kosovo. The leading international organizations of interest in this research include the European Union (EU), the North Atlantic Treaty Organization/Alliance (NATO), United Nations (UN), and Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) among others. The choice of these international organizations was informed by published research on Kosovo by Dursun-Ozkanca (2009) and scholarly studies on post-conflict reconstruction (Rice, 2004; World Bank, 2017b). However, the UN Mission in Kosovo was excluded because there was extensive research on the subject.
The post-conflict reconstruction of Kosovo is an issue of interest due to the challenges and the complexities associated with planning and the implementation of multiple infrastructural projects which are funded by different stakeholders with different vested interests. The claims about vested interests are based on Dursun-Ozkanca’s (2009)’s findings on cooperation and competition between the EU and NATO in the post-conflict reconstruction of Kosovo. In addition, post-conflict reconstruction is always faced with numerous challenges, as evident in the Middle East and North African countries, especially in Afghanistan and Iraq (Rathmell, 2008; Fujimura, 2016; World Bank, 2017b). The history of conflict in Kosovo is presented in the background information section.
Background Information
Kosovo is a semi-independent state in Southern Europe, the establishment of the country was as a result of the Kosovo conflict which was triggered by ethnic tensions between the Serbians and the Albanians, which resulted in an armed uprising against the Yugoslavian government (Serbia and Montenegro) between 1998 and 1998. Historical accounts suggest that the Albanians and ancient Illyrians inhabited Balkan Peninsula, including modern-day Kosovo in the 6th and 7th centuries. In the subsequent years, Kosovo was controlled by Bulgaria, the Ottoman Empire, and the Serbians, who ruled the country until its independence (World Bank, 2019). Even though the Serbians lay claim of ownership, their narrative is contested by the “Serbs who argue that Kosovo was traditionally the territory of Old Serbia and the origin of Serbia” (Demjaha, 2017, p. 183). Considering that none of these groups were willing to compromise on their positions, Kosovo would remain a contested space. The contestations would be amplified, considering that a majority of the Serbs were aging, and the working-age Kosovo Serbs were economically disenfranchised (Judah, 2019); there were fewer jobs available to this population.
The country declared independence in 2008 and is recognized as a sovereign state by 114 countries many of which are UN members states (World Bank, 2019; Republic of Kosovo-Ministry of Foreign Affairs., 2020); before attaining independence, Kosovo was placed under United Nations administration under Security Council Resolution 1244 (Dursun-Ozkanca, 2009; United Nations University-Wider, 2013; Earnest, 2015). The declaration of independence enabled the country to redefine is economical and political spheres, as noted in the next section.
The main economic parameters for the country are outlined in Table 1. According to the World Bank, Kosovo’s GDP was $7.9 billion, which is nearly twofold higher than the 4.2 billion recorded in 2010 (Republic of Kosovo-Ministry of European Integration, 2020). Based on these parameters, the country is classified as a low, middle-income state. In contrast to other developing countries, Kosovo has experienced robust economic growth since the 2008 financial crisis (World Bank, 2019). The economic indicators for Kosovo published by the World Bank contrast with data drawn from Kosovo’s ministry of economic development data in Table 2, which shows that the country has experienced a surge in public debt and a decline in exports (a vital source of foreign exchange) (Ministry of Economic Development, 2020). The causes for the variations in the dataset are discussed in chapter two.
Table 1 Kosovo’s economic data from the World Bank
Kosovo 2018
Population, million 1.8
GDP, current US$ billion 7.9
GDP per capita, current US$ 4,312
Life Expectancy at Birth, years 76.7
Source: (World Bank, 2019)
Table 2 Kosovo’s economic performance 2017-2019
Year 2017 2018 TM3 2019
Export (million €) 378 367.5 288.8
Import (million €) 3,047.0 3,347.0 2,549.1
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (%) 1.5% 1.1% 2.4%
Direct Foreign investments (million €) 255.4 272.1 229
Remittances (million €) 759.2 800.6 627.4
Public debt (% e BPV) 16.22% 16.92% 17.4%
Source: (World Bank, 2019)
Various theories and narratives have been advanced in an attempt to explain the primary triggers for the conflict. Even though the conflict was short-lived, it resulted in significant economic and structural damage. The IMF noted the conflict had resulted in a surge in the number of refugees – at the peak of the conflict, there were about 800,000 refugees (IMF, 2020). The growth in refugee populations had an adverse effect on economic productivity because it means that the working population was not engaged in economically productive activities. Second, there was a wide gap in the balance of payment, which was estimated to be about $1 billion (IMF, 2020).
Even though the war occurred more than two decades ago, the country has remained relatively poor – 60% of its population lives in extreme poverty. In addition, the government does not have a sustainable source of revenue beyond the taxation of imports and foreign aid. In 2016, the country’s gross national product was 6.5 billion pounds (Vilanova, 2016). From a practical point of view, the state of Kosovo’s economy and post-conflict reconstruction epitomizes the failures of post-conflict reconstruction; such failures are primarily attributed to competition between donors. The research findings reported by Vilanova (2016) are in agreement with Bytyçi (2018), who noted that Kosovo’s state institutions were generally weak.
According to the school of thought advanced by Bytyçi (2018), the weakness of the economy was primarily attributed to the lack of a sustainable insulation mechanism. In particular, the researcher notes that the international organizations that assumed the responsibility of state-building such as the EU and the UN “did not extend such an insulation to all, or at least most, of Kosovo’s public administration institutions, but reserved it only for a small number of them, specifically the Kosovo Customs and Police” Based on this school of thought, it could be argued that the process of state-building would remain a challenge because the international actors had focused on other areas apart from the economy. However, the claims made by Bytyçi (2018) contrast with a study by the United Nations University, which notes that international organizations involved in state-building after the Kosovo conflict had assumed ownership of the economy and the political state through “neo-trusteeship,” which is a combination of domestic governance structures (United Nations University-Wider, 2013). The two studies illustrate that there are contrasting perspectives on the strategies adopted by international actors in post-conflict reconstruction.
Third, the conflict had a domino effect on other countries, including neighboring Montenegro, Albania, Macedonia, which had recorded a slump in tourism due to insecurity in Kosovo. The estimates provided by IMF are in line with Brookings Institute’s assessment, which noted that the conflict had resulted in irreparable damage to the economy and the social fabric.
Research Objectives
1. To determine the impact of international organization collaboration and competition on the post-conflict reconstruction of Kosovo
2. To explore the economic barriers to the reconstruction of the Kosovo economy
3. To highlight the main policy interventions and strategies that were adopted in the reconstruction of the country
4. To determine the impact of military influences on the post-conflict reconstruction of the country.
Research Questions
1. Has the involvement of international actors enhanced or impeded post-conflict reconstruction of Kosovo?
2. Which international actors or groups of international actors have been instrumental to economic recovery, social and political stability after the conflict?
3. How has Kosovo managed to address the vested interests of the political establishment?
4. Are there sustainable solutions for post-conflict reconstruction given current interventions have been largely ineffective?
Hypotheses
1. The strategies adopted by international organizations in post-conflict reconstruction of Kosovo had a significant effect on the state of post-conflict reconstruction of the economy
2. The strategies and policies adopted by international organizations in post-conflict reconstruction of Kosovo had a negligible impact on the state of post-conflict reconstruction of the economy
Problem Statement
The Kosovo conflict has been largely viewed from the perspective of western researchers, which has partly contributed to bias and misrepresentation of the facts. Additionally, post-conflict reconstruction has been largely regulated by western-based international organizations such as NATO and EU (Dursun-Ozkanca, 2009), each of which has different strategic interests. In brief, current scholarly discourse on Kosovo has either disregarded or underexplored the following issues – impact of international organization collaboration and competition on the post-conflict reconstruction of Kosovo; economic barriers to the reconstruction of the Kosovo economy; main policy interventions and strategies that were adopted in the reconstruction of the country and the impact of the military on the post-conflict reconstruction of the country. The gaps in published research were addressed in this study through a qualitative investigation of the strategies that were adopted by international agencies in the post-conflict reconstruction of Kosovo.
Justification
The investigation of the post-conflict reconstruction of Kosovo has significant implications for the international community. First, the state of post-conflict reconstruction helps to determine whether the interventions were appropriate and if the solutions were sustainable. Based on the current evidence about widespread poverty (Vilanova, 2016; IMF, 2020), the post-conflict interventions were not entirely effective. Vilanova argued that the case of Kosovo illustrated the limits of international post-conflict reconstruction governance. Second, the analysis of the state of post-conflict reconstruction will help to inform similar interventions in other developing countries. In brief, it was imperative to determine whether the failure of post-conflict reconstruction in Kosovo could be due to the adoption of inappropriate strategies. The main structure of the dissertation is outlined below.
Structure of the Dissertation
The dissertation has five chapters that were based on the university’s dissertation requirements, namely the abstract, acknowledgment, content list: acronyms: introduction, literature review, chapters: research methods, data presentation (results) and discussion (inclusion recommendations for future research, limitations, review of the research questions, implications, and conclusion) conclusions, recommendations: limitations: bibliography: the sub-sections that were incorporated into the literature reviewed are presented in chapter two.
A Brief of the Methodology
The choice of the research methods was based on the research context and the scope of the research. A secondary research approach was adopted in this study considering that the scope of the research is post-conflict reconstruction – a process that has been in progress for the past 20 years (1999 to present) (United Nations University-Wider, 2013; Todorovski, Zevenbergen and van der Molen, 2016; Bytyçi, 2018). The researcher noted that it was not practical to investigate post-conflict reconstruction using an empirical study because the data would not be representative of the 20-year window. In addition, it was hypothesized that it would be a challenge to obtain a representative population from the international organizations involved in post-conflict reconstruction.
The research data was primarily drawn from scholarly publications and reports published by the IMF, UN, and the Barcelona Institute for International Affairs, among other credible sources. The inclusion of the sources was informed by a predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria, which is discussed in detail in the results section. However, the most relevant criteria were the publication window and relevance to post-conflict reconstruction in Kosovo.
Definition of Terms
Post-Conflict Reconstruction
The term post-conflict reconstruction in the current context denoted the efforts undertaken in rebuilding the nation after war or prolonged internal conflict. In the case of Kosovo, post-conflict reconstruction was characterized by creating administrative institutions, restoring the economy through economic diversification and liberalization, resettling the refugees, addressing the underlying triggers for ethnic tensions, and political instability (Dursun-Ozkanca, 2009; Vilanova, 2016).
International Organizations
The international organizations of interest in this research were limited to not-for-profit entities that undertake humanitarian efforts on behalf of the global community or on behalf of a select group of countries such as the European Union and NATO.
Neo-trusteeship
Neo-trusteeship is one of the strategies of international post-conflict reconstruction, which combines domestic and international governance structures. The approach has been adopted by international stakeholders to assume “responsibility for the domestic political authority and economy” in Kosovo and East Timor (United Nations University-Wider, 2013).
Contribution to Political Science Research
The research would enrich political science scholarship in the following ways. First, the study comprehensively investigates the strategies adopted by international actors in Kosovo since the cessation of the conflict. The area of focus was guided by the narrow focus of the present research. The body of knowledge emphasizes on the following themes: neo-trusteeship (United Nations University-Wider, 2013), the shortcomings of post-conflict governance (Vilanova, 2016) and administration (Todorovski, Zevenbergen and van der Molen, 2016), the economic consequences of the conflict (Steinbruner, no date; IMF, 2020), the steps undertaken in rebuilding Kosovo and competition between EU and NATO (Dursun-Ozkanca, 2009), the growth of the mafia culture in the country (Naím, 2012), and corruption in the outsourcing of government functions (Passas, 2009). The areas of focus on previous research do not highlight the specific strategies that were adopted by international partners. The purpose of the research is discussed in the next section.
Purpose of the Research
The purpose of the qualitative study of Kosovo is to explore the strategies that define international organizations’ interventions in post-conflict reconstruction and, in turn. The information would resolve perpetual poverty, ethnic tensions, and the perceived failure of international governance.
Content of the Research
The research focuses on two themes, namely post-conflict reconstruction and interventions of international stakeholders in Kosovo (UN, USAID, EU, NATO, and others). Other issues relating to the geopolitical events in Southern Europe, Serbia, or Bosnia-Herzegovina are not part of the study. In addition, the UNMIK – United Nations Mission in Kosovo is excluded from this research because it has been extensively explored in published research.
Conclusion
The first chapter has delineated the main gaps in the present body of knowledge relating to the post-conflict reconstruction; the successes and failures of the international organizations UN, USAID, EU, and NATO have been reviewed. For example, the background information suggests that international organizations did not provide an insulation mechanism for public sector institutions; instead, the resources were channeled to law enforcement agencies such as the police. However, even though the approach was counterproductive, it could be justified from the context of the volatile security situation in southeast Europe. The literature review section focuses on the cost benefits of the post-conflict reconstruction strategies using academic theories such as the post-conflict reconstruction policy and coordination theory, among others.
Chapter Two: Literature Review
Introduction
The chapter reviews the basis for post-conflict reconstruction from the perspective of international stakeholders. First, the cost benefits of the post-conflict reconstruction policies are considered using the market, hierarchical, and network models of coordination that were applied by Nyambura (2011) in the investigation of post-conflict reconstruction in developing countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (Rwanda, Namibia, Kenya, and Sudan) and the resource curse theory, which helps explain why armed conflict is common in developing economies with weak institutions (John, 2011; Deacon and Rode, 2012; Frynas, Wood and Hinks, 2017). The discussion is also informed by the fact that the implementation of reconstruction projects in Kosovo and other countries is often more complex than anticipated, and the strategies implemented by policymakers are, at times, inadequate (Earnest, 2015). Additionally, donor conditionality and lack of resources have often been cited as critical barriers (Earnest, 2015).
Importance of the Topic to Research
The post-conflict reconstruction of Kosovo is of interest to the international community owing to the following reasons. First, the existing strategies have not alleviated local populations from poverty (Vilanova, 2016; IMF, 2020). Poverty is an antecedent for conflict in developing economies (Ikejiaku, 2009). Second, the investigation of the strategies would help identify shortcomings and possible areas of improvement. For example, it has already been established that the strategies adopted by the EU and NATO were counterproductive because they had advanced competition in place of collaboration. In brief, the research would contribute to an information-led approach to post-conflict reconstruction in Kosovo that also draws on the lessons learned in other developing economies and the impact of resource courses on self-determination and foreign interferences.
Researcher’s Personal Interest
The researcher’s interest in the post-conflict reconstruction of Kosovo is based on personal experiences and research interests in the politics of Kosovo. The researcher has acquaintances from Kosovo and has gained first-hand experiences on the adverse effects of post-conflict reconstruction delays during personal visits. Additionally, the researcher’s interest in post-conflict reconstruction of Kosovo in place of Afghanistan or other volatile state is validated by the inadequacy of the current body of knowledge on Kosovo. Considering that Kosovo is a small country in South-East Europe, the conflict and other events in the country have been largely underexplored in research. The inability to consider the post-conflict reconstruction of Kosovo as a priority issue could be attributed to the limited visibility of the country in the global arena. The lack of global visibility had also contributed to the delayed response by the international community during the conflict.
Beyond the under-exploration of the subject, the Kosovo conflict occurred at a unique period in history. Based on the geographical size of the country and the short timeline of the conflict, Abadi (2019) argues that the Kosovo conflict was relatively small and largely a footnote in the global history compared to other significant events that were taking place in the world. However, in reality, this was not the case. The conflict drew global attention and the involvement of all major world powers under NATO following the deaths of ethnic Albanian Kosovar, which was sponsored by the Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic (Abadi, 2019). The victory of NATO and allied forces formed the basis of future policy interventions and international response to authoritarian regimes in Syria and Libya. In brief, the 1998-1999 conflict in Kosovo has global implications to this day. On the downside, the involvement of the US in the conflict also helped to shape unilateralism in the Middle East conflict, which has had an adverse effect on global peace. In brief, the impact of the Kosovo conflict on the world is profound. The literature search methodology is highlighted below.
Field Identification and Literature Search Methodology
The field of research was identified by investigating the scope of published research; current scholarly research on Kosovo was fixated on the following issues; the limits of interventional governance (Vilanova, 2016), cooperation and competition among international actors (Dursun-Ozkanca, 2009), the state of Kosovo’s economy (World Bank, 2019; Republic of Kosovo-Ministry of European Integration, 2020), post-conflict reconstruction from the context of project management (Earnest and Dickie, 2012); it is evident that the strategies adopted by international actors in Kosovo have been disregarded or underexplored.
The literature that formed the core of the present discussion was collected using the following approach. First, the publication window was limited to 2010 to 2020 to facilitate the review of current information relevant to Kosovo. Second, the search was primarily confined to scholarly databases and peer-reviewed journals (including Global Governance, African Affairs, Foreign Policy, and Political Sciences Quarterly) and reports published by the EU, NATO, USAID, Ministry of Economic Development, Ministry of European Integration, IMF and World Bank including ‘Neo-trusteeship in Post-Conflict States – Lessons from Kosovo and East Timor,’ Rebuilding Kosovo: Cooperation or Competition between the EU and NATO, and The Economic Consequences of the Kosovo Crisis: An Updated Assessment. The theories and narratives advanced in these publications were reviewed using thematic analysis and other approaches listed in chapter three.
Models of Coordination and Resource Curse
From the perspective of the researcher, the post-conflict reconstruction of Kosovo has not yielded optimal outcomes due to the resource curse. Research on mining in Kosovo shows that the exploitation of mineral wealth in the country has been overshadowed by uncertainty regarding the “stateness” of Kosovo. Urbeti (2014) claims that mining development in Kosovo, which is a measure of post-conflict reconstruction success, has been curtailed by rent-seeking and corruption among large foreign mining companies. The extent of corruption in the country is evident from the World Governance Index data in Table 3; Kosovo had consistently underperformed (in governance, the rule of law, political stability and corruption) between 2003 and 2015 (World Bank, 2017a). From the researcher’s point of view, the phenomenon to “sub-optimal separation of powers amongst state regulators responsible for firm licensing” (p. 695). The observations made by Urbeti are in line with other research studies, which postulate that the sovereignty of Kosovo is questionable despite international recognition.
Table 3 World Governance Index – Kosovo
WGI composites Year Minimum governance, −2.5 to +2.5 Minimum percentile rank
SEE6 Kosovo SEE6 Kosovo
Political stability and
absence of
violence/terrorism 2003 −0.6 .. 52 ..
2008 0.07 1.04 48.33 85.17
2013 −0.21 −0.98 40.6 18.01
2015 -0.04 -0.33 45 35.24
Government
effectiveness 2003 −0.58 .. 31.71 ..
2008 −0.28 −0.5 45.55 37.38
2013 −0.2 −0.41 47.77 40.67
2015 -0.09 -0.42 50.8 39.42
2003 −0.75 −1.06 27.11 15.79
The rule of law 2008 −0.44 −0.6 40.06 34.13
2013 −0.31 −0.57 44.95 36.02
2015 -0.23 -0.47 47.84 37.02
2003 −0.59 −0.81 34.64 22.93
Control of corruption 2008 −0.36 −0.59 44.25 32.52
2013 −0.35 −0.64 44.98 30.62
2015 -0.30 -0.52 47.20 36.54
Source: (World Bank, 2017a)
Chandler (2019) observed that state-building had been overshadowed by the stateness of Kosovo. The states of Kosovo has been shaped by liberal internationalism that led to the creation of the UN protectorate in 1999 and modern pragmatism that has contributed to the advancement of vested interests in the reconstruction of the country. Therefore, the claims of Kosovo’s independence are based on Utopia because state institutions are under the direct control of western powers and institutions such as the NATO-led Kosovo Force (KFOR), European Rule of Law Mission in Kosovo (EULEX), EUNIMIK, European Reform Agenda (ERA) and European Union Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA). Considering the significant influence of Europe on Kosovo, the models of coordination in the post-conflict reconstruction of the country have been shaped by partisan interests.
Considering the negative effect of complete state capture and proxy leadership, Kosovo might not benefit from the mineral wealth. The claim is reinforced by the fact that the country has not developed a local capacity to manage mineral wealth. In addition, there are limited institutional competences beyond the assistance provided by EU and US-funded institutions (Urbeti, 2014; Chandler, 2019). The lack of ownership has also extended to the security sector (Qehaja and Prezelj, 2017), which is managed by Kosovo Customs and Police and funded by western agencies (Bytyçi, 2018). The main question is whether the resource course would create an avenue for a new conflict or if the current status quo would be maintained.
Based on the state of security after the 1999 conflict, it can be deduced that a new conflict is less probable because international actors have vested interests that are dependent on security and stability. However, it is increasingly becoming apparent that Kosovo would continue to exist in a state of semi-independence. The claim about vested interests is evident from the fact that some of the EU assistance programs were specific to the mining sector through the 430 million Euro infrastructural grant (European Commission Liaison Office to Kosovo, 2011). The vested interests in the economy have also been correlated with political interventions, as noted in the next sections.
Political Strategies among International Stakeholders in Kosovo
Even though international stakeholders are required to be apolitical, the EU, the US, and other stakeholders had advanced their political agenda in the course of post-conflict reconstruction; this narrative is shared by Montanaro (2009) and Demjaha (2017). The claim is further reinforced by the conflict between Washington and the Kremlin (Abadi, 2019; Chandler, 2019). The conflict has resulted in the emergence of two factions that subscribe to different political ideologies. On the one hand, there are Serb-Kosovars whose political allegiance is to the Kremlin and the orthodox church (Montanaro, 2009), a position that has contributed to further marginalization by the EU and US-funded institutions. On the other hand, the remaining factions remain loyal to the US and the EU, considering that they owe their independence to the former. Even though the political strategy to post-conflict reconstruction has served the interests of western powers, it has immensely contributed to ethnic polarization, as evidenced by the residential patterns. Montanaro notes that the segregated regions such as Kosova, Peja, Rrahovec, Fushe, Decani, Klina, Northern Kosovo, and Strpce are the preferred dwelling spaces for Serbians in the country (Montanaro, 2009). The observations made by Montanaro are in line with UNEP’s analysis of environmental diversity in Kosovo in Figure 1 (UNEP and GRID Arendal, 2009). Ethnic segregation practices have also contributed to adverse inter-ethnic relations (Demjaha, 2017). In general, both Montanaro (2009) and Demjaha (2017) concur that ethnic tensions between different ethnic groups in Kosovo could be linked to the post-conflict interventions that were adopted by western agencies and governments. After considering the shortcomings of the current forms of post-conflict reconstruction, the main question is whether a change in allegiance by the Serbs would result in a more equitable distribution of resources by the international stakeholders. Additionally, current research does not provide causal relationships on the social-economic, and demographic factors contributed to the marginalization of the Serbs beyond the fact that they were aligned with Russian.
Figure 1 Ethnic diversity in Kosovo (UNEP and GRID Arendal, 2009)
Economic Strategies to Post-Conflict Reconstruction
Beyond the politicization of post-conflict reconstruction through rent-seeking, ethnic profiling of Albanians and the Serbs, current evidence suggests that international stakeholders adopted unique economic strategies in post-conflict reconstruction of Kosovo. The economic strategy to post-conflict reconstruction was largely defined by investments in selected sectors of the economy and regions with the highest economic potential. In contrast, regions with the least economic potential received the least investments, which in turn, resulted in a skewed development pattern. The observation is supported an EU report which noted that international NGO activities were concentrated around Pristina City, and the resettlement, water, and sanitation programs were biased in favor of displaced persons living in the Mitrovica region (European Commission, 2009). The two regions have substantial economic significance for the country, considering that Mitrovica has substantial mineral deposits, including nickel and magnesite (European Commission, 2009), while Pristina is the capital city and the international stakeholders could accrue financial benefits by providing services. Even though the economic approach to post-conflict reconstruction was beneficial to international actors, it had contributed to the economic disenfranchisement of selected regions. The future outlook of post-conflict reconstruction is discussed in the next section.
Limitations of International Efforts and Foreign Aid
As noted in the previous sections, international efforts in Kosovo were not entirely motivated by humanitarian considerations. The adoption of a political and economic dimension to economic reconstruction introduces fundamental challenges, especially because Kosovo is a poor country with limited resources, and it largely relies on donor funds for development. In general, there is a substantial risk that the country would continue to be dependent on donor aid as developing countries in Sub-Saharan and the Middle East (de Ree and Nillesen, 2009; Nielsen et al., 2011; Smith, 2017). The western-led development model has often proven ineffective.
The arguments made regarding the ineffectiveness of foreign aid are valid because foreign aid does not resolve the economic, political, and social factors that contribute to poverty. Similarly, the Chinese and eastern “model of aid on demand” is counterproductive because it is devoid of an accountability system and supports autocratic regimes (Dreher et al., 2015). The researcher’s opposition towards the advancement of foreign aid in Kosovo is also augmented by the fact that foreign aid has, in some cases, been a trigger for armed conflict (Nielsen et al., 2011), especially in Africa. The narrative advanced by Nielsen and co-researchers is in line with de Ree and Nillesen (2009), who questioned whether aid was facilitating violence or conflict. In the latter study, the researchers argued that historical patterns in endogenous aid allocation and GDP levels show that the former had minimal effect on the latter. The issue of concern is that Kosovo might experience a resurgence in the conflict in the future or remain in a state of implicit dependence on the west.
Even though aid was not suitable and effective in a majority of the cases, there were exceptions, Germany, Singapore, and South Korea were success stories. South Korea had overtime graduated from an aid recipient to an aid donor (Marx and Soares, 2013). However, based on the state of events since the 1999 conflict and the subsequent declaration of independence in 2008, there is no compelling evidence that Kosovo would adopt the South Korean or German model of aid utilization.
The theory made by de Ree and Nillesen (2009), was tested using data obtained from the World Bank, FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, and Microtrends. The period of interest was from 2000 to 2018 (Table 4). The data showed that Kosovo had recorded a fourfold growth in GDP per capita growth from a low of $$1,088 in 2000 to $4281 in 2018 (Macrotrends, 2020). The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2020) reported a similar pattern in economic growth – a factor that further validates the observations made in research. On the downside, the annual growth rate had remained unstable even though the country had continued to receive substantial resources. The empirical data validates and invalidates earlier theories made by de Ree and Nillesen. On the one hand, it shows that foreign aid could not help drive economic growth. On the other hand, it could be argued that foreign aid had positively contributed to the GDP growth per capita. On the downside, it is difficult to determine the actual factors that contributed to this scenario. The future outlook of post-conflict reconstruction in Kosovo is discussed in the next section.
Table 4 Kosovo’s GDP growth and annual economic growth rate
Year GDP Per Capita (US $) Annual Growth Rate (%)
2018 $4,281 8.44%
2017 $3,948 6.79%
2016 $3,697 3.43%
2015 $3,575 -11.84%
2014 $4,055 4.59%
2013 $3,877 7.67%
2012 $3,601 -3.63%
2011 $3,736 13.79%
2010 $3,284 2.30%
2009 $3,210 -1.39%
2008 $3,255 21.18%
2007 $2,686 20.06%
2006 $2,237 4.18%
2005 $2,147 2.92%
2004 $2,087 27.38%
2003 $1,638 15.89%
2002 $1,414 -5.16%
2001 $1,490 37.01%
2000 $1,088 37.01%
Source: (Macrotrends, 2020)
Table 5 A comparative analysis of Kosovo’s economic growth relative to countries with similar economic ranking
Country Name GDP Per Capita (US $)
Georgia
$4,345
Kosovo
$4,281
Eswatini
$4,140
Mongolia
$4,104
Sri Lanka
$4,102
El Salvador
$4,058
Indonesia
$3,894
Cabo Verde
$3,654
Bolivia
$3,549
Tunisia
$3,447
Angola
$3,432
Bhutan
$3,360
Morocco
$3,238
West Bank and Gaza
$3,199
Moldova
$3,189
Philippines
$3,103
Ukraine
$3,095
Micronesia
$3,058
Vanuatu
$3,033
Papua New Guinea
$2,723
Lao PDR
$2,568
Vietnam
$2,564
Egypt
$2,549
Source: (Macrotrends, 2020)
Future Outlook
The post-conflict reconstruction of Kosovo has the potential for success. However, the possibility of success is dependent on the ability of the international stakeholders, especially western agencies to adopt information-led strategies rather than political partisanship; in particular, the researcher argues that the strategies should be guided by World Bank’s Systematic Country Diagnostics presented in Table 4 (World Bank, 2017a). According to the SCD, the priority sectors in Kosovo’s economy are energy bottlenecks, the rule of law, corruption, efficiency in public expenditure, sustainable use of natural resources, tax policy, and agriculture (World Bank, 2017a). Considering that the politicization of the growth process and ethnic polarization are non-issues, the EU and other stakeholders had misaligned priorities.
Table 4 Systematic country diagnostic of Kosovo
Priority Growth Poverty and shared Sustainability The time horizon of impacts
prosperity
Short Medium Long
Reducing energy bottlenecks
Improving governance, the rule of law, and the business climate
Improving the allocation and efficiency of public expenditure
Increasing employment and labor productivity through education
Ensuring the sustainable management of natural resources
Strengthening tax policy and administration
Increasing productivity in agriculture
Raising employment and labor productivity through labor policies.
Reducing ICT bottlenecks
Raising the quality and equality of opportunity through social.
protection
Raising the quality and equality of opportunity through health.
care
Maintaining financial stability and deepening financial.
intermediation
Reducing transport bottlenecks
Color key
High priority Medium priority Low priority
Short term Medium-term Long term
Source: (World Bank, 2017a)
Gaps in Research
The existing evidence relating to the post-conflict reconstruction of Kosovo and the strategies adopted by international stakeholders such as the EU provided a comprehensive account of the challenges in the sector. However, there is no specific research that exclusively focuses on the strategies implemented by international stakeholders in Kosovo. The main areas of focus are the failures and milestones of existing policies. Beyond the lack of comprehensive data on the individual policies, current research on Kosovo is biased in favor of western stakeholders even though the post-conflict reconstruction of Kosovo was a multi-stakeholder process that involved western and non-western actors. The bias limited the investigation of the strategies adopted by non-western agencies in the post-conflict reconstruction of the country.
Conclusion
Researchers suggest that the post-conflict reconstruction of Kosovo was largely driven by partisan interests between the East and the West – Washington and the Kremlin in particular. The advancement of partisan interest has also contributed to the marginalization of certain regions such as Kosova, Peja, Rrahovec, Fushe, Decani, Klina, Northern Kosovo, and Strpce that were either occupied by the Serbs. Even though researchers primarily argued that the Serbs were marginalized based on their relationship with the Kremlin, other factors might have contributed to the alienation of this ethnic group. Apart from the segregation of selected groups, the research established that international stakeholders had also adopted a political and economic dimension in post-conflict reconstruction. For example, western agencies made higher investments in the resettlement of the refugees in areas with high mineral resources such as the Mitrovica region and Pristina City.
From the researcher’s perspective, it was not coincidental that large settlement schemes for refugees were constructed, and more humanitarian efforts were made in these areas. Nonetheless, even though such investments benefited local communities, such investments had significant negative long-term effects due to the resource curse phenomenon in which countries with significant mineral resources are unable to record tangible growth in the economy due to rent-seeking, corruption, and exploitation of the mineral wealth. Despite the limitations in the current dataset, the researcher notes that Kosovo is a unique case due to the timeframe of the conflict, the size of the country, and the involvement of diverse actors with shared interests. The research method for this study is presented below.
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